Lay betting using the One Stop Rating (OSR)
Published: Sun, 10/09/22
Lay betting using the One Stop Rating (OSR)
Over the last few months a number of people have enquired about the best way of spotting potential “Lays” using our ratings as they are interested in Lay betting.
The beauty of "Lays" is that you do not even have to lay them, you can simply not back them thus eliminating a fair few losers from your calulations.
What is a Lay betting?
For the uninitiated, a “Lay” is a horse that is expected to lose. Lay betting is an option on a betting exchange such as Betfair which allows punters to play the role of bookmaker (or layer). You set the odds of the bet, and you potentially win the backer’s stake if the selection loses.
There is an increased risk though. If the selection wins, you lose the backers stake multiplied by the price of the selection (minus the stake amount).
The risk can be reduced if you are prepared to lay more than one horse in a race as there can only be one winner.
How do I find horses for Lay betting?
Full Members and Ratings Members will already be aware that we provide a daily list of potential Lays using our master rating the OSR.
We have noticed over the time that we have been generating the ratings that a significant amount of horses that are Top Ranked on OSR but only 1 to 5 points clear of the second rated tend to lose. Our reasoning behind this is due to the cramped nature of the ratings spread the race is very competitive with any number of horses having the scope to win.
This list is published daily on the Ratings Page (Full Members and Ratings Members).
Most day's this list is also emailed to All Members.
Results
This strategy has performed exceedingly well since we began monitoring in July
- July - 194 wining lays from 228 qualifiers 85% Strike Rate
- August - 162 wining lays from 222 qualifiers 73% Strike Rate
- September - 145 wining lays from 186 qualifiers 78% Strike Rate
- October to date - 41 wining lays from 47 qualifiers 87% Strike Rate (includes 10/10 on Saturday)
Here are the potential lays for today Sunday 9th October 2022.
Top Ranked OSR 1-5 (possible lays **)
We have had a fair bit of success laying the horses that are Top Ranked on OSR but only a few points ahead of the second rated. This article explains things in a bit more depth Lay betting using the One Stop Rating (OSR).
* BEWARE NON RUNNERS IN A RACE CAN SOMETIMES CHANGE THE POINTS CLEAR OF THE TOP RATED *
| Time | Track | Race Type | Card No | Top Rated Horse | Points Clear | Odds | Results |
| 2.00 | Ffos Las | Hurdle (Class 4) | No. 3 | Karavomylos (IRE) | 3 | 6/1 | |
| 3.45 | Ffos Las | Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) | No. 6 | Camembert Electric (IRE) | 4 | 6/1 | |
| 4.35 | Southwell | Handicap (Class 6) | No. 3 | Jackamundo (FR) | 3 | 7/2 |
A Race Cards Member can find the potential lay by looking on any race card and subtracting the OSR of the second ranked horse from the top ranked Horse. In the example below Camembert Electric (IRE) is just 4 points ahead of Farceur De Maulne (FR) and is therefore a potential Lay.
Sun 9th Oct 2022
3.45 Ffos Las (13 runners)
Phil Bessant Ltd – Roy Stephens Handicap Hurdle
Class 5, 3m , Good, 4yo+, Win: £3703
| No. | Form | Days | Horse | Age | Weight | Headgear | Jockey | Trainer | Miles | OR | Odds | OSR | CD | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4981316 | 144 | Camembert Electric (IRE) | 6 | 11-7 | Sheppard, Stan | Lacey, T | 100 | 93 | 6/1 | 266 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 9906341 | 142 | Farceur De Maulne (FR) | 7 | 11-8 | CkPc | Powell, Brendan | Hawker, Richard | 124 | 94 | 7/2 | 262 | D | 1 |
| 4 | 743102U | 40 | Loved Out (IRE) | 5 | 11-9 | CkPc | Wedge, Adam | Williams, Evan | 61 | 95 | 8/1 | 257 | C | 5 |
| 7 | 6462416 | 32 | Castkitello (IRE) | 6 | 11-7 | Blnk TT | Jones, Ben R | Clarke, Ben | 154 | 93 | 8/1 | 248 | D | 3 |
| 1 | 5P33114 | 47 | Sheila Nash (IRE) | 7 | 12-2 | Doyle, Alan (5) | Whittington, H | 177 | 102 | 11/2 | 244 | 4 | ||
| 3 | 0734374 | 18 | Navegaon Gate | 4 | 11-10 | Twiston-Davies, Sam | Twiston-Davies, N A | 123 | 100 | 7/1 | 240 | 1 | ||
| 8 | 6PP265P | 52 | On The Bandwagon (IRE) | 7 | 11-4 | ONeill, Jonjo (Jr) | ONeill, Jonjo | 123 | 90 | 14/1 | 225 | 4 | ||
| 10 | 40P5736 | 47 | Robbie Dazzler | 5 | 10-4 | Patrick, Richard | Scudamore, M J | 105 | 76 | 12/1 | 205 | 4 | ||
| 13 | 88P49F5 | 32 | Meechlands Magic | 6 | 10-2 | CkPc TT | Bowen, Sean P | Hamer, Mrs D A | 12 | 74 | 33/1 | 200 | 5 | |
| 2 | 6011727 | 23 | Ballymilan | 7 | 11-11 | Reed, Harry | Mulholland, N P | 114 | 97 | 12/1 | 198 | 5 | ||
| 11 | 1F0PP97 | 112 | Black Lightning (IRE) | 9 | 10-2 | Blnk | Worsley, Tabitha (3) | Howell, Ms G | 107 | 74 | 33/1 | 187 | 3 | |
| 14 | P0PPU | 12 | Jump Over The Moon (IRE) | 5 | 10-2 | CkPc | Harris, Bradley (7) | Mulholland, N P | 114 | 74 | 25/1 | 112 | 1 | |
| 9 | 5BP7 | 206 | Master Alan | 7 | 10-4 | McLernon, R P | ONeill, Jonjo | 123 | 76 | 10/1 | 109 | 0 |
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best regards
Keith and the team at One Stop Racing
www.onestopracing.co.uk/
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